Still in recession or turning in Jan?

So things are worse than clever people thought (BBC). And the recent figures from my business support this as I wrote earlier about worrying signs. However a BT survey published this week says that 75% of SMEs think things are going to turn up in Jan next year! If I was writing this earlier in the week I might have taken some comfort from the BT report findings. But today, as Britain is confirmed into the worst recession since records began in 1955, I find it hard to be optimistic. October is always a low month for my biz but if this month finishes as it started I have to go back to Oct 07 to find worse monthly figures. At this rate all the growth we've managed to maintain in 2009 will be all but wiped out and whether this year finishes up or down on 2008 will be entirely dependant on the Christmas period. Like us, I'm sure that the SMEs participating in the BT survey have been investing in both technology and staff in the hope of being well placed for the expected recovery. And I quite agree with Digby Jones when he says that embedding technology in the heart of a business is vital to both future growth and current survival but unlike the BT SMEs, my worry is increasing not decreasing. We're lucky to have zero debt, a healthy market position, apparently weakening competition, good technology and great staff. But if October's figures are the start of a second dip, our recent investment could come to look rash. I hope I'm wrong.

October Blues

Amidst all the talk of green shoots and coming out of recession, my worst fears might be coming to bear. Our figures have an unnerving habit of being a very good indicator of things to come. Last October we saw a sudden drop in what, for two years up the then, had been a pretty steady growth rate. Since then things have been growing again, slowly but pretty steadily. Last month (Sept) would have taken a mini dive had it not been for one large export order and now Oct is starting very sluggishly indeed. In fact I'm currently predicting to sell less this Oct than last by about 40%! That's never happened to us and the old 'double dip' is starting to make a lot more sense to me now.

Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft

I got to ask Steve a question this morning. Not everyday you get to speak to the CEO of Microsoft. In fairness I was one of many in a room in a posh hotel in London who paid to hear him speak. But still. His theme seemed to me to boil down to 'every thing's about innovation and hard work.' He implied that the 'automation of the everyday' was less that five years away and that it wouldn't be long before we would be designing a cars on massive touch screens that understood our needs and made the whole interface with technology transparent.

My question was how did he split himself between this sort of ambassadorial role and the day to day management of the corporation. He said he was only about 5% ambassador and that hands on work took up most of his time. I have to say I thought that figure might be a little low and may have been the answer his employees in the room wanted to hear. In fact I'd be quite disappointed if it were true. Surely the role of a modern CEO is to be out there most of the time, leaving a competent crew at home to innovate and work at the business, bringing back useful nuggets and thoughts as appropriate. Steve gave everyone his personal email so I might challenge him on his answer away from public gaze.