Still in recession or turning in Jan?

So things are worse than clever people thought (BBC). And the recent figures from my business support this as I wrote earlier about worrying signs. However a BT survey published this week says that 75% of SMEs think things are going to turn up in Jan next year! If I was writing this earlier in the week I might have taken some comfort from the BT report findings. But today, as Britain is confirmed into the worst recession since records began in 1955, I find it hard to be optimistic. October is always a low month for my biz but if this month finishes as it started I have to go back to Oct 07 to find worse monthly figures. At this rate all the growth we've managed to maintain in 2009 will be all but wiped out and whether this year finishes up or down on 2008 will be entirely dependant on the Christmas period. Like us, I'm sure that the SMEs participating in the BT survey have been investing in both technology and staff in the hope of being well placed for the expected recovery. And I quite agree with Digby Jones when he says that embedding technology in the heart of a business is vital to both future growth and current survival but unlike the BT SMEs, my worry is increasing not decreasing. We're lucky to have zero debt, a healthy market position, apparently weakening competition, good technology and great staff. But if October's figures are the start of a second dip, our recent investment could come to look rash. I hope I'm wrong.

Agent Provocateur says sales up

This story made me smile. I like its counter-intuitiveness. But do we conclude from it that in a recession the number of people having affairs goes up or is it that people are spending money on themselves and their partners as it's a) cheaper to stay home and b) no one can afford to get divorced?

And what does that mean for businesses?

Green shoots or counter intuitive?

As I look at our business in 2009 I can see a definite slowing down of the high levels of growth we've seen every year since we started. Up until Nov 2008 we were always up over 100% on the same month the previous year. In Nov 08 growth slowed to 35%, Dec 08 was 65%, Jan was 17% and Feb looks to be along the same lines as Jan. As it happens not bad given the climate. But are we taking market share in a declining market or is the market not shrinking to the extent that media reports would have us believe?

I know, wearing a different hat, that market condition in Camden Town are better than expected for lots of businesses http://tinyurl.com/dfojvm and wonder if others have similar experiences?